What renewing today actually looks like
What renewing a mortgage looks like at today's rates: policy rate, prime and the posted 5-year fixed, and the payment math versus the rate you locked in before.
Anyone renewing a mortgage today is pricing against a posted 5-year fixed rate of 6.09% as of 2026-09-09, and a prime rate of 4.45% on the same date, according to the Bank of Canada. The policy rate behind both is 2.25% as of 2026-09-11, down from its 5.00% peak in 2023.
| Policy rate | 2.25% — since 2026-09-11 |
|---|---|
| Prime rate | 4.45% — as of 2026-09-09 |
| Posted 5-year fixed | 6.09% — as of 2026-09-09 |
| 5-year Government of Canada bond | 3.65% — as of 2026-09-11 |
| Stress-test rate at posted | 8.09% — greater of posted + 2 or 5.25% |
For context on where fixed pricing is headed, the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield (a leading indicator for fixed rates) was 3.65% on 2026-09-11, up from 3.63% the day before. Anyone renewing into an insured mortgage is still tested at 8.09%, the posted rate plus 2 percentage points, since that exceeds the 5.25% stress-test floor.
How big is this renewal wave, really
Roughly 60% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages are coming up for renewal between 2025 and 2026, the largest concentrated wave the country has seen, because it's the flip side of the ultra-low, 1.3%–1.9% five-year fixed rates lenders were offering back in 2020–2022. Those five-year terms are expiring now, into a market where five-year fixed rates sit in the mid-4% to low-5% range instead, according to CMHC. CMHC has put the median payment increase for someone renewing a standard 5-year fixed mortgage this wave at 15% to 24%, though the actual number for any given borrower depends heavily on how much of their original rate advantage they're giving up and whether they extend their amortization to soften the blow.
CMHC has also flagged that this pressure isn't spread evenly across the country. Toronto and Vancouver, where mortgage balances are largest relative to income, are the markets it considers most exposed to renewal strain. That's worth keeping in mind alongside this page's national rate numbers: the "average" renewal shock is a lot gentler than what a highly leveraged buyer in a high-price market is actually facing.
Sources
- Bank of Canada — retrieved 2026-09-14
- Adapted from Bank of Canada data (Valet API), reproduced under the Bank of Canada's Terms of Use.
- CMHC, "Mortgage renewal wave strains some regions and borrowers"