The Bank of Canada rate is 2.25%

The Bank of Canada's policy rate sits at 2.25% as of 2026-09-11, well below the 5.00% peak it reached in 2023. The prime rate most variable mortgages and lines of credit are priced against is 4.45% as of 2026-09-09, and the posted 5-year fixed rate lenders quote is 6.09% as of the same date.

Policy rate	2.25% — since 2026-09-11
Prime rate	4.45% — as of 2026-09-09
Posted 5-year fixed	6.09% — as of 2026-09-09
5-year Government of Canada bond	3.65% — as of 2026-09-11
Stress-test rate at posted	8.09% — greater of posted + 2 or 5.25%

The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield, which fixed mortgage rates tend to track, was 3.65% on 2026-09-11, up from 3.63% the day before. Anyone qualifying for an insured mortgage today is tested against a rate of 8.09%, the posted rate plus 2 percentage points, since that's higher than the 5.25% regulatory floor.

What economists expect next

The Bank held at 2.25% for a seventh consecutive decision in early September 2026, matching what all 35 economists in a Reuters poll had expected going in. There's unusually broad agreement right now that the Bank is on hold, not that a change is imminent. Where forecasters disagree is on 2027: some expect the rate to stay flat at 2.25% well into 2027, while others (National Bank, Scotiabank, RBC among them) expect one or two quarter-point increases to begin by early-to-mid 2027, landing somewhere between 2.50% and 3.25% by the end of that year.

None of that is a prediction this page is making. It's a summary of where bank economists currently sit, and it can shift with each new inflation or jobs report. The practical takeaway for anyone renewing or shopping a mortgage right now is that the "hold" itself is the least contested part of the outlook; what happens after it is genuinely split.

Sources

• Bank of Canada — retrieved 2026-09-14
• Adapted from Bank of Canada data (Valet API), reproduced under the Bank of Canada's Terms of Use.
• Bank of Canada, September 2026 rate announcement