Fixed vs. variable, with today's numbers
A look at today's policy rate, prime rate, and posted 5-year fixed rate to compare fixed vs. variable mortgages, sourced from the Bank of Canada.
Variable-rate mortgages are priced off the prime rate, which is 4.45% as of 2026-09-09, according to the Bank of Canada. Fixed rates move more with bond markets: the posted 5-year fixed rate was 6.09% on the same date, while the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield (the number lenders watch when setting fixed pricing) was 3.65% on 2026-09-11, up slightly from 3.63% the day before.
| Policy rate | 2.25% — since 2026-09-11 |
|---|---|
| Prime rate | 4.45% — as of 2026-09-09 |
| Posted 5-year fixed | 6.09% — as of 2026-09-09 |
| 5-year Government of Canada bond | 3.65% — as of 2026-09-11 |
| Stress-test rate at posted | 8.09% — greater of posted + 2 or 5.25% |
The policy rate itself is 2.25% as of 2026-09-11, down substantially from the 5.00% peak reached in 2023. Whichever way a borrower leans, the mortgage stress test still applies: an insured mortgage today is tested at 8.09%, the posted rate plus 2 percentage points, since that's above the 5.25% regulatory floor.
The spread, and what it's actually telling you
The gap between the best available 5-year variable and 5-year fixed rates has generally run somewhere between 0.3 and 1 percentage point through 2026, with variable coming in lower, a real but modest cushion, not the kind of wide spread that made variable an obvious choice during past cutting cycles. On a $600,000 mortgage over a 5-year term, a spread in that range works out to roughly $8,000–$10,000 of total interest saved if variable holds its advantage the whole term, according to mortgage-industry rate trackers. That number assumes rates don't move against you, which is exactly the risk variable carries and fixed doesn't.
A narrower spread is generally read as the market pricing in less room for further rate cuts, which gives variable less of a safety margin if the Bank does end up holding or raising instead. That's a market signal, not advice about which is right for a given borrower's own risk tolerance, income stability, or how long they plan to keep the mortgage.
Sources
- Bank of Canada — retrieved 2026-09-14
- Adapted from Bank of Canada data (Valet API), reproduced under the Bank of Canada's Terms of Use.
- Ratehub.ca, fixed vs. variable rate comparison