Buyer's or Seller's Market? Read It Yourself From Four Numbers (2026)
Four numbers from your board's monthly report tell you the market: months of inventory, sales-to-listings ratio, average days on market and sale-to-list ratio.
Four numbers, all in your board's monthly report. Months of inventory (active listings ÷ sales): under 4 seller's, over 6 buyer's. Sales-to-new-listings ratio: above 60% seller's, below 40% buyer's. Average days on market: falling and under 20 means competition; rising and over 45 means leverage for buyers. Sale-to-list price ratio: above 100% means bidding wars; below 97% means sellers are conceding. When three of the four agree, you know the market. When they disagree, the market is turning, and the direction of change matters more than the level.
The CostToClose guided buying flow turns the offer you settle on into cash-to-close.
The four numbers
| Indicator | Seller's market | Balanced | Buyer's market | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Months of inventory | < 4 | 4–6 | > 6 | Supply relative to demand |
| Sales-to-new-listings ratio | > 60% | 40–60% | < 40% | Whether new supply is being absorbed |
| Average days on market | < 20 and falling | 20–45 | > 45 and rising | How fast homes sell |
| Sale-to-list price ratio | > 100% | 97–100% | < 97% | Whether buyers are paying over or under asking |
Thresholds are the conventions used by Canadian boards and CMHC; property types within a city can differ.
Reading direction, not just level
A market at 5 months of inventory that was at 3 six months ago is loosening: sellers who priced on last spring's comparables are about to be disappointed, and a buyer can be patient. The same 5 months coming up from 8 is tightening. Most board reports include year-over-year and month-over-month changes; read those columns.
Turning it into an offer
| Reading | Buyer | Seller |
|---|---|---|
| Seller's (3 of 4 indicators) | Pre-approve, pre-inspect, offer at or over asking, minimal conditions; know your walk-away price before the offer night | Price at market or a touch under; set an offer date; expect conditions to be waived |
| Balanced | Full conditions; open 2%–5% under asking; negotiate on closing date and inclusions | Price accurately; one round of negotiation is normal |
| Buyer's | Open 5%–10% under; longer conditions; ask for repairs or credits; be willing to walk | Price under the last sale; consider concessions; sell before you buy |
Worked example
Board report for a mid-size Ontario city, August:
| Indicator | Value | Change vs last year | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Months of inventory | 5.8 | +1.9 | Balanced, loosening |
| Sales-to-new-listings | 44% | −11 pts | Balanced, edging to buyer's |
| Average days on market | 38 | +14 | Balanced, slowing |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 97.5% | −2.5 pts | Balanced, sellers conceding |
All four agree: balanced and moving toward buyers. A buyer here keeps financing and inspection conditions and opens about 4% under asking; a seller prices to the most recent comparable, not the peak. Turn the offer into a closing budget.
What the numbers miss
Segment and location. A city can be a buyer's market for condos and a seller's market for detached homes under $800,000 at the same time. Pull the report for the property type and district you are actually shopping in, and then look at the specific listing's history.
Frequently asked questions
How do you know if it's a buyer's or seller's market?
Check months of inventory, sales-to-new-listings ratio, days on market and sale-to-list ratio in your board's monthly report; when three of the four point the same way, that is the market.
What is a good sale-to-list price ratio?
Around 97% to 100% is balanced. Above 100% means homes are selling over asking; below 97% means sellers are accepting less.
Should I waive conditions in a seller's market?
Only with a lender's written approval of the specific property and enough cash to cover an appraisal shortfall. See What you lose when a deal falls apart.
How often are market statistics updated?
Monthly, by each board, usually in the first week of the following month.
Does CostToClose publish market statistics?
No. Board data is licensed; this page explains how to read it yourself.
Sources
- CMHC, Housing Market Information Portal — indicator definitions — checked 14 Sept 2026
- Canadian real estate boards' monthly statistics reports (definitions of MOI, SNLR, DOM, sale-to-list) — checked 14 Sept 2026
This is general information, checked against the sources listed on the date shown. It is not legal, tax, or mortgage advice. Rules change, so confirm with your lender or the government office concerned.