Cost- With the Bank of Canada holding at 2.25% through recent announcements, the case for waiting specifically for further rate cuts is weaker than it was during the active cutting cycle of 2024-2025.
- Waiting also carries a real cost if home prices or your own circumstances change in the meantime — it isn't a cost-free strategy.
- There's no consensus forecast guaranteeing further cuts are coming, which is different from the period when cuts were actively underway and clearly signalled.
The case for still waiting
If you believe further rate cuts are likely, waiting to lock in a mortgage until after they materialize is a coherent strategy — but it's meaningfully more speculative now than it was during 2024-2025's active cutting cycle, when cuts were clearly underway and the direction was less in question. A hold, as covered in our rate update, signals the Bank sees the current rate as roughly appropriate for now, not necessarily that another cut is imminent.
The cost of waiting, which is easy to underweight
Waiting isn't free even if rates do eventually fall — in the meantime, you're not building equity, you're exposed to whatever happens to home prices in your target market, and your own circumstances (income, family situation, lease timing) may not wait for the "ideal" rate moment. Our emergency fund guide aside, the less obvious cost of waiting is simply time — years you're not accumulating equity are years that don't come back.
A more useful way to frame the decision
Rather than trying to precisely time a rate bottom — which even professional forecasters don't reliably do — it's often more productive to ask whether today's numbers work for your actual budget and goals, independent of where rates might go next. See what today's rate actually means for your specific numbers on the mortgage payment calculator, and decide from there rather than from a rate prediction.
- Bank of Canada — accessed September 2026