Cost- Borrowers who took a 5-year fixed rate in 2021, near the pandemic-era lows, are renewing in 2026 at meaningfully higher rates.
- The increase is smaller than it would have been renewing in 2023 or 2024, since rates have since come down from their peak, but it's still a real payment increase for most of this group.
- Lenders are required to notify borrowers of upcoming renewals well in advance, giving time to shop the renewal rather than accept the first offer.
How big the increase actually is
Someone who locked in a 5-year fixed rate in 2021, when rates briefly touched some of their lowest levels in Canadian history, is renewing in 2026 at a rate that — even after the declines since the 2023 peak — is still meaningfully higher than what they signed up for. The exact gap depends on the specific rate they locked in and current offers, but a payment increase in the range of 15-30% is a realistic planning assumption for this specific cohort, smaller than the 30-50%+ some in this position faced renewing in 2023-2024, but still a real budget adjustment.
Why this specific group is affected
This is purely a timing issue tied to when a mortgage was originally locked in, not a reflection of anything about the borrower. Rates in 2021 were unusually low even by historical standards, so any 5-year fixed mortgage from that specific window is renewing into a structurally different rate environment almost by definition, regardless of what happens to rates in the meantime.
What to do about it
Start reviewing your renewal well before your lender's own notice arrives — most lenders are required to send a renewal notice in advance, but that notice typically just offers their own rate rather than the best rate available to you in the market. Shopping your renewal with a broker, rather than automatically accepting your existing lender's offer, routinely beats the auto-renewal rate quoted by your current lender. See your new payment estimate on the mortgage renewal calculator.
- Bank of Canada — accessed September 2026